Look-ahead: a likely explanation for female disinterest in VC-funded startups.

There’s been quite a bit of cyber-ink flowing on the question of why so few women are in the software industry, especially at the top, and especially in VC-funded startups. Paul Graham’s comments on the matter, being taken out of context by The Information, made him a lightning rod. There’s a lot of anger and passion around this topic, and I’m not going to do all of that justice. Why are there almost no venture capitalists, few women being funded, and not many women rising in technology companies? It’s almost certainly not a lack of ability. Philip Greenspun argues that women avoid academia because it’s a crappy career. He makes a lot of strong points, and that essay is very much worth reading, even if I think a major factor (discussed here) is underexplored.

Why wouldn’t this fact (of academia being a crap career) also make men avoid it? If it’s shitty, isn’t it going to be avoided by everyone? Often cited is a gendered proclivity toward risk. People who take unhealthy and outlandish risks (such as by becoming drug dealers) tend to be men. So do overconfident people who assume they’ll end up on top of a vicious winner-take-all game. The outliers on both ends of society tend to be male. As a career with subjective upsides (prestige in addition to a middle-class salary) and severe, objective downsides it appeals to a certain type of quixotic, clueless male. Yet making bad decisions is hardly a trait of one gender. Also, we don’t see 1.5 or 2 times as many high-power (IQ 140+) men making bad career decisions. We probably see 10 times as many doing so; Silicon Valley is full of quixotic young men wasting their talents to make venture capitalists rich, and almost no women, and I don’t think that difference can be explained by biology alone.

I’m going to argue that a major component of this is not a biological trait of men or women, but an emergent property from the tendency, in heterosexual relationships, for the men to be older. I call this the “Look-Ahead Effect”. Heterosexual women, through the men they date, see doctors buying houses at 30 and software engineers living paycheck-to-paycheck at the same age. Women face a number of disadvantages in the career game, but they have access to a kind of high-quality information that prevents them from making bad career decisions. Men, on the other hand, tend to date younger women covering territory they’ve already seen.

When I was in a PhD program (for one year) I noticed that (a) women dropped out at higher rates than men, and (b) dropping out (for men and women) had no visible correlation with ability. One more interesting fact pertained to the women who stayed in graduate school: they tended either to date (and marry) younger men, or same-age men within the department. Academic graduate school is special in this analysis. When women don’t have as much access to later-in-age data (because they’re in college, and not meeting many men older than 22) a larger number of them choose the first career step: a PhD program. But the first year of graduate school opens their dating pool up again to include men 3-5 years older than them (through graduate school and increasing contact with “the real world”). Once women start seeing first-hand what the academic career does to the men they date– how it destroys the confidence even of the highly intelligent ones who are supposed to find a natural home there– most of them get the hell out.

Men figure this stuff out, but a lot later, and usually at a time when they’ve lost a lot of choices due to age. The most prestigious full-time graduate programs won’t accept someone near or past 30, and the rest don’t do enough for one’s career to offset the opportunity cost. Women, on the other hand, get to see (through the guys they date) a longitudinal survey of the career landscape when they can still make changes.

I think it’s obvious how this applies to all the goofy, VC-funded startups in the Valley. Having a 5-year look ahead, women tend to realize that it’s a losing game for most people who play, and avoid it like the plague. I can’t blame them in the least. If I’d had the benefit of 5-year look-ahead, I wouldn’t have spent the time I did in VC-istan startups either. I did most of that stuff because I had no foresight, no ability to look into the future and see that the promise was false and the road led nowhere. If I had retained any interest in VC-istan at that age (and, really, I don’t at this point) I would have become a VC while I was young enough that I still could. That’s the only job in VC-istan that makes sense.

VC-istan 8: the Damaso Effect

Padre Damaso, one of the villains of the Filipino national novel, Noli me Tangere, is one of the most detestable literary characters, as a symbol of both colonial arrogance and severe theological incompetence. One of the novel’s remarks about colonialism is that it’s worsened by the specific types of people who implement colonial rule: those who failed in their mother country, and are taking part in a dangerous, isolating, and morally questionable project that is their last hope at acquiring authority. Colonizers tend to be people who have no justification for superior social status left but their national identity. One of the great and probably intractable tensions within the colonization process is that it forces the best (along with the rest) of the conquered society to subordinate to the worst of the conquering society. The total incompetence of the corrupt Spanish friars in Noli is just one example of this.

In 2014, the private-sector technology world is in a state of crisis, and it’s easy to see why. For all our purported progressivism and meritocracy, the reality of our industry is that it’s sliding backward into feudalism. Age discrimination, sexism, and classism are returning, undermining our claims of being a merit-based economy. Thanks to the clubby, collusive nature of venture capital, to secure financing for a new technology business requires tapping into a feudal reputation economy that funds people like Lucas Duplan, while almost no one backs anything truly ambitious. Finally, there’s the pernicious resurgence of location (thanks to VCs’ disinterest in funding anything more than 30 miles away from them) as a career-dominating factor, driving housing prices in the few still-viable metropolitan areas into the stratosphere. In so many ways, American society is going back in time, and private-sector technology is a driving force rather than a counterweight. What the fuck, pray tell, is going on? And how does this relate to the Damaso Effect?

Lawyers and doctors did something, purely out of self-interest, to prevent their work from being commoditized as American culture became increasingly commercial in the late 19th century. They professionalized. They invented ethical rules and processes that allowed them work for businessmen (and the public) without subordinating. How this all works is covered in another essay, but it served a few purposes. First, the profession could maintain standards of education so as to keep membership in the profession as a form of credibility that is independent of managerial or client review. Second, by ensuring a basic credibility (and, much more important, employability) for good-faith members, it enabled professionals to meet ethical obligations (i.e. don’t kill patients) that supersede managerial or corporate authority. Third, it ensured some control over wages, although that was not its entire goal. In fact, the difference between unionization and professionalization seems to be as follows. Unions are employed when the labor is a commodity, but ensure that the commoditization happens in a fair way (without collective bargaining, and in the absence of a society-wide basic income, that never occurs). Unions accept that the labor is a commodity, but demand a fair rate of exchange. Professionalization exists when there is some prevailing reason (usually an ethical one, such as in medicine) to prevent full commoditization. If it seems like I’m whitewashing history here, let me point out that the American Medical Association, to name one example, has done some atrocious things in its history. It originally opposed universal healthcare; it has received some karma, insofar as the inventively mean-spirited U.S. health insurance system has not only commoditized medical services, but done so on terms that are unfavorable to physician and patient both. I don’t mean to say that the professions have always been on the right side of history, because that’s clearly not the case; professionalization is a good idea, often poorly realized.

The ideal behind professionalization is to separate two senses of what it means to “work for” someone: (1) to provide services, versus (2) to subordinate fully. Its goal is to allow a set of highly intelligent, skilled people to deliver services on a fair market without having to subordinate inappropriately (such as providing personal services unrelated to the work, because of the power relationship that exists) as is the norm in mainstream business culture.

As a tribe, software professionals failed in this. We did not professionalize, nor did we unionize. In the Silicon Valley of the 1960s and ’70s, it was probably impossible to see the need for doing so: technologists were fully off the radar of the mainstream business culture, mostly lived on cheap land no one cared about, and had the autonomy to manage themselves and answer to their own. Hewlett-Packard, back in its heyday, was run by engineers, and for the benefit of engineers. Over time, that changed in the Valley. Technologists and mainstream, corporate businessmen were forced to come together. It became a colonial relationship quickly; the technologists, by failing to fight for themselves and their independence, became the conquered tribe.

Now it’s 2014, and the common sentiment is that software engineers are overpaid, entitled crybabies. I demolished this perception here. Mostly, that “software engineers are overpaid” whining is propaganda from those who pay software engineers, and who have a vested interest. It has been joined lately by leftist agitators, angry at the harmful effects of technology wealth in the Bay Area, who have failed thus far to grasp that the housing problem has more to do with $3-million-per-year, 11-to-3 product executives (and their trophy spouses who have nothing to do but fight for the NIMBY regulations that keep housing overpriced) than $120,000-per-year software engineers. There are good software jobs out there (I have one, for now) but, if anything, relative to the negatives of the software industry in general (low autonomy relative to intellectual ability, frequent job changes necessitated by low concern of employers for employee career needs, bad management) the vast majority of software engineers are underpaid. Unless they move into management, their incomes plateau at a level far below the cost of a house in the Bay Area. The truth is that almost none of the economic value created in the recent technology bubble has gone to software engineers or lifelong technologists. Almost all has gone to investors, well-connected do-nothings able to win sinecures from reputable investors and “advisors”, and management. This should surprise no one. Technology professionals and software engineers are, in general, a conquered tribe and the great social resource that is their brains is being mined for someone else’s benefit.

Here’s the Damaso Effect. Where do those Silicon Valley elites come from? I nailed this in this Quora answer. They come from the colonizing power, which is the mainstream business culture. This is the society that favors pedigree over (dangerous, subversive) creativity and true intellect, the one whose narcissism brought back age discrimination and makes sexism so hard to kick, even in software which should, by rights, be a meritocracy. That mainstream business world is the one where Work isn’t about building things or adding value to the world, but purely an avenue through which to dominate others. Ok, now I’ll admit that that’s an uncharitable depiction. In fact, corporate capitalism and its massive companies have solved quite a few problems well. And Wall Street, the capital of that world, is morally quite a bit better than its (execrable) reputation might suggest. It may seem very un-me-like to say this, but there are a lot of intelligent, forward-thinking, very good people in the mainstream business culture (“MBA culture”). However, those are not the ones who get sent to Silicon Valley by our colonial masters. The failures are the ones sent into VC firms and TechCrunch-approved startups to manage nerds. Not only are they the ones who failed out of the MBA culture, but they’re bitter as hell about it, too. MBA school told them that they’d be working on $50-billion private-equity deals and buying Manhattan penthouses, and they’re stuck bossing nerds around in Mountain View. They’re pissed.

Let me bring Zed Shaw in on this. His essay on NYC’s startup scene (and the inability thereof to get off the ground) is brilliant and should be read in full (seriously, go read it and come back to me when you’re done) but the basic point is that, compared to the sums of money that real financiers encounter, startups are puny and meaningless. A couple quotes I’ll pull in:

During the course of our meetings I asked him how much his “small” hedge fund was worth.

He told me:


That’s right. His little hedge fund was worth more money than thousands of Silicon Valley startups combined on a good day. (Emphasis mine.) He wasn’t being modest either. It was “only” worth 30 billion dollars.

Zed has a strong point. The startup scene has the feeling of academic politics: vicious intrigue, because the stakes are so small. The complete lack of ethics seen in current-day technology executives is also a result of this. It’s the False Poverty Effect. When people feel poor, despite objective privilege and power, they’re more inclined to do unethical things because, goddammit, life owes them a break. That startup CEO whose investor buddies allowed him to pay himself $200,000 per year is probably the poorest person in his Harvard Business School class, and feels deeply inferior to the hedge-fund guys and MD-level bankers he drank with in MBA school.

This also gets into why hedge funds get better people (even, in NYC, for pure programming roles) than technology startups. Venture capitalists give you $5 million and manage you; they pay to manage. Hedge fund investors pay you to manage (their money). As long as you’re delivering returns, they stay out of your hair. It seems obvious that this would push the best business people into high finance, not VC-funded technology.

The lack of high-quality businessmen in the VC-funded tech scene hurts all of us. For all my railing against that ecosystem, I’d consider doing a technology startup (as a founder) if I could find a business co-founder who was genuinely at my level. For founders, it’s got to be code (tech co-founder) or contacts (business co-founder) and I bring the code. At my current age and level of development, I’m a Tech 8. A typical graduate from Harvard Business School might be a Biz 5. (I’m a harsh grader, that’s why I gave myself an 8.) Biz 6 means that a person comes with connections to partners at top VC firms and resources (namely, funding) in hand. The Biz 7′s go skiing at Tahoe with the top kingmakers in the Valley, and count a billionaire or two in their social circle. If I were to take a business co-founder (noting that he’d become CEO and my boss) I’d be inclined to hold out for an 8 or 9, but (at least, in New York) I never seemed to meet Biz 8′s or 9′s in VC-funded technology, and I think I’ve got a grasp on why. Business 8′s just aren’t interested in asking some 33-year-old California man-child for a piddling few million bucks (that comes along with nasty strings, like counterproductive upper management). They have better options. To the Business 8+ out there, whatever the VCs are doing in Silicon Valley is a miserable sideshow.

It’s actually weird and jarring to see how bad the “dating scene”, in the startup world, is between technical and business people. Lifelong technologists, who are deeply passionate about building great technology, don’t have many places elsewhere to go. So a lot of the Tech 9s and 10s stick around, while their business counterparts leave and a Biz 7 is the darling at the ball. I’m not a fan of Peter Shih, but I must thank him for giving us the term “49ers” (4′s who act like 9′s). The “soft” side, the business world of investors and well-connected people who think their modest connections deserve to trade at an exorbitant price against your talent, is full of 49ers– because Business 9′s know to go nowhere near the piddling stakes of the VC-funded world. Like a Midwestern town bussing its criminal element to San Francisco (yes, that actually happened) the mainstream business culture sends its worst and its failures into the VC-funded tech. Have an MBA, but not smart enough for statistical arbitrage? Your lack of mathematical intelligence means you must have “soft skills” and be a whiz at evaluating companies; Sand Hill Road is hiring!

The venture-funded startup world, then, has the best of one world (passionate lifelong technologists) answering to the people who failed out of their mother country: mainstream corporate culture.

The question is: what should be done about this? Is there a solution? Since the Tech 8′s and 9′s and 10′s can’t find appropriate matches in the VC-funded world (and, for their part, most Tech 8+ go into hedge funds or large companies– not bad places, but far away from new-business formation– by their mid-30s) where ought they to go? Is there a more natural home for Tech 8+? What might it look like? The answer is surprising, but it’s the mid-risk / mid-growth business that venture capitalists have been decrying for years as “lifestyle businesses”. The natural home of the top-tier technologist is not in the flash-in-the-pan world of VC, but the get-rich-slowly world of steady, 20 to 40 percent per year growth due to technical enhancement (not rapid personnel growth and creepy publicity plays, as the VCs prefer).

Is there a way to reliably institutionalize that mid-risk / mid-growth space, that currently must resort (“bootstrapping”) to personal savings (a scarce resource, given that engineers are systematically underpaid) just as venture capital has done to the high-risk /get-big-or-die region of the risk/growth spectrum? Can it be done with a K-strategic emphasis that forges high-quality businesses in addition to high-value ones? Well, the answer to that one is: I’m not sure. I think so. It’s certainly worth trying out. Doing so would be good for technology, good for the world, and quite possibly very lucrative. The real birth of the future is going to come from a fleet of a few thousand highly autonomous “lifestyle” businesses– and not from VC-managed get-huge-or-die gambits.

The U.S. conservative movement is a failed eugenics project. Here’s why it could never have worked.

At the heart of the U.S. conservative movement, and most religious conservative movements, is a reproductive agenda. Old-style religious meddling in reproduction had a strong “make more of us” character to it– resulting in blanket policies designed to encourage reproduction across a society– but the later incarnations of right-wing authoritarianism, especially as they have mostly divorced themselves from religion, have been oriented more strongly toward goals judged to be eugenic, or to favor the reproduction of desirable individuals and genes; instead of a broad-based “make more of us” tribalism, it becomes an attempt to control the selection process.

The term eugenics has an ugly reputation, much earned through history, but let me offer a neutral definition of the term. Eugenics (“good genes”) is the idea that we should consciously control the genetic component of what humans are born into the world. It is not a science, since the definition of eu- is intensely subjective. As “eugenics” has been used throughout history to justify blatant racism and murder, the very concept has a negative reputation. That said, strong arguments can be made in favor of certain mild, elective forms of eugenics. For example, subsidized or free higher education is (although there are other intents behind it) a socially acceptable positive eugenic program: removal of one of a dysgenic economic force (education costs, usually borne by parents) that, empirically speaking, massively reduces fertility among the most capable people while having no effect on the least capable. 

The eugenic impulse is, in truth, fairly common and rather mundane. The moral mainstream seems to agree that eugenics (if not given that stigmatized name) is morally acceptable when participation is voluntary (i.e. no one is forced to reproduce, or not to do so) and positive (i.e. focused on encouraging desirable reproduction, rather than discouraging those deemed “unwanted”) but unacceptable when involuntary (coercive or prohibitive) and negative. The only socially accepted (and often legislated) case of negative and often prohibitive eugenics is the universal taboo against incest. That one has millennia of evolution behind it, and is also fair (i.e. it doesn’t single out people as unwanted, but prohibits intrafamilial couplings, known to produce unhealthy offspring, in general) so it’s somewhat of special case.

Let’s talk about the specific eugenics of the American right wing. The obsessions over who has sex with whom, the inconsistency between hard-line, literal Christianity and the un-Christ-like rightist economics, and all of the myriad mean-spirited weirdnesses (such as U.S. private health insurance, a monster that even most conservatives loathe at this point) that make up the U.S. right-wing movement; all are tied to a certain eugenic agenda, even if the definition of “eu-” is left intentionally vague. In addition to lingering racism, the American right wing unifies two varieties (one secular, one religious) of the same idea: Social Darwinism and predestination-centric Calvinism. This amalgam I would call Social Calvinism. The problem with it is that it doesn’t make any sense. It fails on its own terms, and the religious color it allowed itself to gain has only deepened its self-contradiction, especially now that sexuality and reproduction have been largely separated by birth control.

In the West, religion has always held strong opinions on reproduction, because the dominant religious forces are those that were able to out-populate the others. “Be fruitful and multiply.” This “us versus them” dynamic had a certain positive (in the sense of “positive eugenics”; I don’t mean to call it “good”) but coercive flair to it. The religious society sought much more strongly to increase its numbers within the world than to differentially or absolutely discourage reproduction by individuals judged as undesirable within its numbers. That said, it still had some ugly manifestations. One prominent one is the traditional Abrahamic religions’ intolerance of homosexuality and non-reproductive sex in general. In modern times, homophobia is pure ignorant bigotry, but its original (if subconscious) intention was to make a religious society populate quickly, which put it at odds with nonre7uiproductive sexuality of all forms.

Predestination (for which Calvinism is known) is a concept that emerged , much later, when people did something very dangerous to literalist religion: they thought about it. If you take religious literalism– born in the illogical chaos of antiquity– and bring it to its logical conclusions, funny things happen. An all-knowing and all-powerful God would, one can reason, have full knowledge and authority over every soul’s final destiny (heaven or hell). This meant that some people were pre-selected to be spiritual winners (the Elect) and the rest were refuse, born only to live through about seven decades of sin, followed by an eternity of unimaginable torture.

Perhaps surprisingly, predestination seemed to have more motivational capacity than the older, behavior-driven morality of Catholicism. Why would this be? People are loathe to believe in something as horrible as eternal damnation for themselves (even if some enjoy the thought for others) and so they will assume themselves to be Elect. But since they’re never quite sure, bad behavior will unsettle them with a creepy cognitive dissonance that is far more effective than ratiocination about punishments and rewards. The behavior-driven framework of the Catholic Church (donations in the form of indulgences often came with specific numbers of years by which time in purgatory was reduced) allows that a bad action can be cancelled out with future good actions, making the afterlife merely an extension of the “if I do this, then I get that” hedonic calculus. Calvinism introduced a fear of shame. Bad actions might be a sign of being one of those incorrigibly bad, damned people.

Calvinist predestination was not a successful meme (and even many of those who identify themselves in modern times as Calvinists have largely rejected it). “Our God is a sadistic asshole; he tortures people eternally for being born the wrong way” is not a selling point for any religion. That said, the idea of natural (as opposed to spiritual) predestination, as well as the Calvinist evolution from guilt-based (Catholicism) to shame-based (Calvinist) Christian morality, have lived on in American society.

Fundamental to the morality of capitalism is that some actors make better uses of resources than others (which is not controversial) and deserve to have more (likewise, not controversial). Applied to humans, this is generally if uneasily accepted; applied to organizations, it’s an obvious truth (no one wants to see the subsistence of inefficient, pointless institutions). Calvinism argued that one’s pre-determined status (as Elect or damned) could be ascertained from one’s actions; conservative capitalism argues that an actor’s (largely innate and naturally pre-determined) value can be ascertained by its success on the market.

Social Darwinism (which Charles Darwin vehemently rejected) gave a fully secular and scientific-sounding basis for these threads of thought, which were losing religious steam by the end of the 19th century. The idea that market mechanics and “creative destruction” ought to apply to institutions, patterns of behavior, and especially business organizations is controversial to almost no one. Incapable and obsolete organizations, whose upkeep costs have exceeded their social value, should die in order to free up room for newer ones. Where there is immense controversy is what should happen to people when they fail, economically. Should they starve to death in the streets? Should they be fed and clothed, but denied health care, as in the U.S.? Or should they be permitted a lower-middle-class existence by a welfare state, allowing them to recover and perhaps have another shot at economic success? The Social Darwinist seeks not to kill failed individuals per se, but to minimize their effect on society. It might be better to feed them than have them rebel, but allowing their medical treatment (on the public dime) is a bridge too far (if they’re sick, they can’t take up arms). It’s not about sadism per se, but effect minimization: to end their cultural and economic (and possibly physical) reproduction. It is a cold and fundamentally statist worldview. Where it dovetails with predestination is in the idea that certain innately undesirable people, damned early on if not from birth, deserve to be met with full effect minimization (e.g. long prison sentences since there is no hope of rehabilitation; persistent poverty because any resources given to them, they will waste) because any effect they have on the world will be negative. Whether they are killed, imprisoned, enslaved, or merely marginalized generally comes down to what is most convenient– and, therefore, effect-minimizing– and that is an artifact of what a society considers socially acceptable.

If we understand Calvinist predestination, and Social Darwinism as well, we can start to see a eugenic plan forming. Throughout almost all of our evolutionary history, prosperity and fecundity were correlated. Animals that won and controlled resources passed along their genes; those that couldn’t do so, died out. Social Darwinism, at the heart of the American conservative movement, believes that this process should continue in human society. More specifically, it holds to a few core tenets. First is that individual success in the market is a sign of innate personal merit. Second is that such merit is, at least partly, genetic and predetermined. Few would hold this correlation to be absolute, but the Social Darwinist considers it strong enough to act on. Third is that prosperity and fertility will, as they have over the billion years before modern civilization, necessarily correlate. The aspects of Social Darwinist policy that seem mean-spirited are justified by this third tenet: the main threat that a welfare state poses is that these poor (and, according to this theory, undesirable) people will take that money and breed. South Carolina’s Republican Lieutenant Governor, Andre Bauer, made this attitude explicit:

My grandmother was not a highly educated woman, but she told me as a small child to quit feeding stray animals. You know why? Because they breed. You’re facilitating the problem if you give an animal or a person ample food supply. They will reproduce, especially ones that don’t think too much further than that. And so what you’ve got to do is you’ve got to curtail that type of behavior. They don’t know any better.

The hydra of the American right wing has many heads. It’s got the religious Bible-thumping ones, the overtly racist ones, and the pseudoscientific and generally atheistic ones now coming out of Silicon Valley’s neckbeard right-libertarianism and the worse half of the “mens’ rights” movement. What unites them is a commitment to the idea that some people are innately inferior and should be punished by society, with that punishment ranging from the outright sadistic to the much more common effect-minimizing (marginalization) levels.

How it falls down

Social Calvinism is a repugnant ideology. Calvinistic predestination is an idea so bad that even conservative religion, for the most part, discarded it. The same scientists who discovered Darwinian evolution (as a truth of what is in nature, not of what should be in the human world) rejected Social Darwinism outright. It has also made a mockery of itself. It fails on its own terms. The most politically visible, mean-spirited, but also criminally inefficient manifestation of this psychotic ideology is in our health insurance system. Upper-middle-class, highly-educated people suffer– just as much as the poor do– from crappy health coverage. If the prescriptive intent behind a mean-spirited health policy is Social Calvinist in nature, the greed and inefficiency and mind-blowing stupidity of it affect the “undesirable” and “desirable” alike (unless one believes that only the 0.005% of the world population who can afford to self-insure are “desirable”). The healthcare fiasco is showing that a society as firmly committed to Social Calvinism as the U.S.– so committed to it that even Obama couldn’t make public-option (much less single-payer) healthcare a reality– can’t even succeed on its own terms. The economic malaise of the 2000s “lost decade” and the various morale crises erupting in the nation (Tea Party, #Occupy) only support the idea that the American social model fails both on libertarian and humanitarian terms.

Why do I argue that Social Calvinism could never work, in a civilized society? To put it plainly, it misunderstands evolution and, more to the point, reproduction (both biological and cultural). Nature’s correlation between prosperity and fecundity ended in the human world a long time ago, and economic stresses have undesirable side effects (which I’ll cover) on how people reproduce.

Let’s talk about biology; most of the ideas here also apply (and more strongly, due to the faster rate of memetic proliferation) to cultural reproduction. After the horrors justified in the name “eugenics” in the mid-20th century, no civilized society is going to start prohibiting reproduction. It’s not quite a “universal right”, but depriving people of the biological equipment necessary to reproduce is considered inhumane, and murdering children after the fact is (quite rightly) completely unacceptable. So people can reproduce, effectively, as much as they want. With birth control in the mix, most people can also reproduce as little as they want. So they have nearly total control over how much they reproduce, whether they are poor or rich. The Social Calvinist believes that the “undesirables” will react to socioeconomic punishment by curtailing reproduction. But do we see that happening? No, not really.

I mentioned Social Calvinism’s 3 core tenets above: (1) that socioeconomic prosperity correlates to personal merit, (2) that merit is at least significantly genetic in nature, and (3) that people will respond to prosperity by increasing reproduction (as if children were a “normal” consumer good) and to punishment by decreasing it. The first of these is highly debatable: desirable traits like intelligence, creativity and empathy may lead to personal success, but so does a lack of moral restraint. The people at the very top of society seem to be, for the most part, objectively undesirable– at least, in terms of their behavior (whether those negative traits are biological is less clear). The second is perhaps unpleasant as a fact (no humanitarian likes the idea that what makes a “good” or “bad” person is partially genetic) but almost certainly true. The third seems to fail us. Or, let me take a more nuanced view of it. Do people respond to economic impulses by controlling reproduction? Of course, they do; but not in the way that one might think.

First, let’s talk about economic stress. Stress can be good (“eustress”) or bad (“distress”) but in large doses, even the good kind can be focus-narrowing, if not hypomanic or even outright toxic. Rather than focusing on objective hardship or plenty, I want to examine the subjective sense of unhappiness with one’s socioeconomic position, which will determine how much stress a person experiences and which kind it is.  Likewise, economic inequality (by providing incentive for productive activity) can be for the social good– it’s clearly a motivator– but it is a source of (without directional judgment to the word) stress. The more socioeconomic inequality there is, the more of this stress society will generate. Proponents of high levels of economic inequality will argue that it serves eustress to the desirable people and institutions and distress to the less effective ones. Yet, if we focus on the subjective matter of whether an individual feels happy or distressed, I’d expect this to be untrue. People, in my observation, tend to feel rich or poor not based on where they are, economically, but by how they measure up to the expectations derived from their natural ability. A person with a 140 IQ who ends up as a subordinate, making a merely average-plus living doing uninteresting work, is judged (and will judge himself) as a failure. Even if that person has the gross resources necessary to reproduce (the baseline level required is quite low) he will be disinclined to do so, believing his economic situation to be poor and the prospects for any progeny to be dismal. On the other hand, a person with a 100 IQ who ends up with the average-plus income (as a leader, not a subordinate; but with the same income and wealth as the person with 140 above) will face life with confidence and, if having children is naturally something he wants, be inclined to start a family early, and possibly to have a large one.

What am I really saying here? I think that, while people might believe that meritocracy is a desirable social ideal, most people respond emotionally not to the component of their economic outcome derived from natural (possibly genetic) merit or hard work, but from the random noise term. People have a hard time believing that randomness is just that (hence, the amount of money spent on lottery tickets) and interpret this noise term to represent how much “society” likes them. In large part, we’re biologically programmed to be this way; most of us get more of a warm feeling from windfalls coming from people liking us than from those derived from natural merit or hard work. However, modern society is so complex that this variable can be regarded as pure noise. Why? Because we, as humans, devise social strategies to make us liked by an unknown stream of people and contexts we meet in the future, but whether the people and contexts we actually encounter (“serendipity”) match those strategies is just as random as the Brownian motion of the stock market. Then, the subjective sense of socioeconomic eustress or distress that drives the desire to reproduce comes not from personal merit (genetic or otherwise) but from something so random that it will have a correlation of 0.0 with pretty much anything.

This kills any hope that socioeconomic rewards and punishments might have a eugenic effect, because the part that people respond to on an emotional level (which drives decisions of family planning) is the component uncorrelated to the desired natural traits. There is a way to change that, but it’s barbaric. If society accepted widespread death among the poor– and, in particular, among poor children (many of whom have shown no lack of individual merit; i.e. complete innocents)– then it could recreate a pre-civilized and truly Darwinian state in which absolute prosperity (rather than relative/subjective satisfaction) has a major effect on genetic proliferation.

Now, I’ll go further. I think the evidence is strong that socioeconomic inequality has a second-order but potent dysgenic effect. Even when controlling for socioeconomic status, ethnicity, geography and all the rest, IQ scores seem to be negatively correlated with fertility. Less educated and intelligent people are reproducing more, while the people that humanity should want in its future seem to be holding off, having fewer children and waiting longer (typically, into their late 20s or early 30s) to have them. Why? I have a strong suspicion as to the reason.

Let’s be blunt about it. There are a lot of willfully ignorant, uneducated, and crass people out there, and I can’t imagine them saying, “I’m not going to have a child until I have a steady job with health benefits”. This isn’t about IQ or physical health necessarily; just about thoughtfulness and the ability to show empathy for a person who does not exist yet. Whether rich or poor, desirable people tend to be more thoughtful about their effects on other people than undesirable ones. The effect of socioeconomic stress and volatility will be to reduce the reproductive impulse among the thoughtful, future-oriented sorts of people that we want to have reproducing. It also seems to me that such stresses increase reproduction among the sorts of present-oriented, thoughtless sorts of people that we don’t as much want to be highly represented in the future.

I realize that speaking so boldly about eugenics (or dysgenic threats, as I have) is a dangerous (and often socially unacceptable) thing. To make it clear: yes, I worry about dysgenic risk. Now some of the more brazen (and, in some cases, deeply racist) eugenicists freak out about higher rates of fertility in developing (esp. non-white) countries, and I really don’t. Do I care if the people of the future look like me? Absolutely not. But it would be a shame if, 100,000 years from now, they were incapable of thinking like me. I don’t consider it likely that humanity will fall into something like Idiocracy; but I certainly think it is possible. (A more credible threat is that, over a few hundred years, societies with high economic inequality drift, genetically, in an undesirable direction, producing a change that is subtle but enough to have macroscopic effects.)

Why, at a fundamental level, does a harsher and more inequitable (and more stressful) society increase dysgenic risk? Here’s my best explanation. Evolutionary ecology discusses two reproductive pressures, r- and K-selection, in species, which correspond to optimizing for quantity versus quality of offspring. The r-strategist has lots of offspring, gives minimal paternal investment, and few will survive. An example is a frog giving birth to a hundred tadpoles. The K-strategist invests heavily in a smaller number of high-quality offspring with a much higher individual shot at surviving. Whales and elephants are K-strategists with long gestation periods and few offspring, but a lot of care given to them. Neither is “better” than the other, and they each succeed in different circumstances. The r-strategist tends to repopulate quickest after a catastrophe, while the K-strategist succeeds differentially at saturation.

It is, in fact, inaccurate to characterize highly evolved, complex life forms such as mammals as strong r- or K-selectors. As humans, we’re clearly both. We have an r-selective and a K-selective sexual drive, and one could argue that much of the human story is about the arms race between the two.

The r-selective sex drive wants promiscuity, has a strong present-orientation, and exhibits a total lack of moral restraint– it will kill, rape, or cheat to get its goo out there. The K-selective sex drive supports monogamy, is future-oriented, and values a stable and just society. It wants laws and cultivation (culture) and progress. Traditional Abrahamic religions have associated the r-drive with “evil” and sin. I wouldn’t go that far. In animals it is clearly inappropriate to put any moral weight into r- or K-selection, and it’s not clear that we should be doing that to natural urges that all people have (such as calling the r-selective component of our genetic makeup “original sin”). How people act on those is another matter. The tensions between the r- and K-drives have produced much art and philosophy, but civilization demands that people mostly follow their K-drives. While age and gender do not correlate as strongly to the r/K divide as stereotypes would insist (there are r-driven older women, and K-driven young men) it is nonetheless evident that most of society’s bad actors are those prone to the strongest r-drive: uninhibited young men, typically driven by lust, arrogance and greed. In fact, we have a clinical term for people who behave in a way that is r-optimal (or, at least, was so in the state of nature) but not socially acceptable: psychopaths. From an r-selective standpoint, psychopathy conferred an evolutionary advantage, and that’s why it’s in our genome.

Both sexual drives (r- and K-) exist in all humans, but it wasn’t until the K-drive triumphed that civilization could properly begin. In pre-monogamous societies, conflicts between men over status (because, when “alpha” men have 20 mates and low-status men have none, the stakes are much greater) were so common that between a quarter and a half of men died in positional violence with other men. Religions that mandated monogamy, or at least restrained polygamy as Islam did, were able to build lasting civilizations, while societies that accepted pre-monogamous distributions of sexual access were unable to get past the chaos of constant positional violence.

There are many who argue that the contemporary acceptance of casual sex constitutes a return to pre-monogamous behaviors. I don’t care to get far into this one, if only because I find the hand-wringing about the topic (on both sides) to be rather pointless. Do we see dysgenic patterns in the most visible casual sex markets (such as the one that occurs in typical American colleges)? Absolutely, we do. Even if we reject the idea that higher-quality people are less prone to r-driven casual sex, the way people (of both sexes) select partners in that game is visibly dysgenic. But to the biological future (culture is another matter) of the human species, that stuff is pretty harmless– thanks to birth control. This is where the religious conservative movement shoots itself in the foot; it argues that the advent of birth control created uncivil sexual behavior. In truth, bad sexual behavior is as old as dirt, has always been a part of the human world and probably always will be; the best thing for humanity is for it to be rendered non-reproductive, mitigating the dysgenic agents that brought psychopathy into our genome. (On the other hand, if human sexual behavior devolved to the state of high school or college casual sex and remained reproductive, the species would devolve into H. pickupartisticus and be kaputt within 500 years. I would short-sell the human species and buy sentient-octopus futures at that point.)

If humans have two sexual drives, it stands to reason that those drives would react differently to various circumstances. This brings to mind the relationship of each to socioeconomic stress. The r-drive is enhanced by socioeconomic stress– both eustress and distress. Eustress-driven r-sexuality is seen in the immensely powerful businessman or politician who frequents prostitutes, not because he is interested in having well-adjusted children (or even in having children at all) but to see if he can get away with it; the distress-driven r-sexuality has more of an escapist, “sex as drug”, flavor to it. In an evolutionary context, it makes sense that the r-drive should be activated by stress, since the r-drive is what enables a species to populate rapidly after an ecological catastrophe. On the other hand, the K-drive is weakened by socioeconomic stress and volatility. It doesn’t want to bring children into a future that might be miserable or dangerously unpredictable. The K-drive’s reaction to socioeconomic eustress is busyness (“I can’t have kids right now; my career’s taking off) and its reaction to distress is to reduce libido as part of a symptomatic profile very similar to depression.

The result of all of this is that, should society fall into a damaged state where socioeconomic inequality and stress are rampant, the r-drive will be more successful at pushing its way to reproduction, while the K-drive is muted. The result is that the people who will come into the future will disproportionately be the offspring of r-driven parents and couplings. Even if we reject the idea that undesirable people have stronger r-drives relative to their K-drives (although I believe that to be true) the enhanced power of the r-strategic sexual drive will influence partner selection and produce worse couplings. Over time, this presents a serious risk to the genetic health of the society.

Just as Mike Judge’s Idiocracy is more true of culture than of biology, we see the overgrown r-drive in the U.S.’s hypersexualized (but deeply unsexy) popular culture, and the degradation is happening much faster to the culture than it possibly could to our gene pool, given the relatively slow rate of biological evolution. Some wouldn’t see any correlation whatsoever between the return of the Gilded Age post-1980 and Miley Cyrus’s “twerking”, but I think that there’s a direct connection.


The Social Calvinism of the American right wing believes that severe socioeconomic inequality is necessary to flush the “undesirables” to the bottom, deprive them of resources, and prevent them from reproducing. Inherent to this strategy is the presumption (and a false one) that people are future-oriented and directed by the K-selective sexual drive, which is reduced by socioeconomic adversity. In reality, the more primitive (and more harmful, if it results in reproduction) r-selective sexual drive is enhanced by socioeconomic stresses.

In reality, socioeconomic volatility reduces the K-selective drive of most people, rich and poor. The reason for this is that a person’s subjective sense of satisfaction with socioeconomic status is not based on whether he or she is naturally “desirable” to society but his or her performance relative to natural ability and industry, which is a noise variable. It enhances the r-selective drive. Even if we do not accept that desirable people are more likely to have strong K-drives and weak r-drives, it is empirically true (seen in millennia of human sexual behavior) that people operating under the K-drive choose better partners than those operating under the r-drive.

The American conservative movement argues, fundamentally, that a mean-spirited society is the only way to prevent dysgenic risk. It argues, for example, that a welfare state will encourage the reproductive proliferation of undesirable people. The reality is otherwise. Thoughtful people, who look at the horrors of American healthcare and the rapid escalation of education costs, curtail reproduction even if they are objectively “genetically desirable” and their children are likely to perform well, in absolute terms. Thoughtless people, pushed by powerful r-selective sex drives, will not be reproductively discouraged, and might (in fact) be encouraged, by the stresses and volatility (but, also, by undeserved rewards) of the harsher society. Therefore, American Social Calvinism actually aggravates the very dysgenic risk that it exists to address.